3 Potential Hires for Every N.F.L. Head Coaching Vacancy

As six NFL teams search for head coaches, it’s easier to be a critic than to find solutions that make sense, especially for the New York Jets.

“I don’t know what you do for the Jets,” an executive from another team said, “and looking at their interview list, I’m not sure they know either.”

That’s a common criticism, but also an unfair one. There’s a common thread running through the Jets’ candidate list, which we’ll explore later in the column. Similar criticisms have been levied against the Chicago Bears, another team with a lengthy list of candidates. Those criticisms seem fairer, as it’s more difficult to discern a vision from the evidence. But it’s still early in the process for these teams.

The Jets, Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys still have time to focus their searches. Six of the eight 2024 hires took place between Jan. 22 and Feb. 1. The average date was even later for the previous two cycles.

While fans wait anxiously, I’ve gone through the six openings with a matchmaker’s mindset, identifying three potential hires for each team, fitting into three buckets: comfortable, shake it up and wild card. It’s a chance to explore the dynamics of these jobs and why certain options could make more sense than others, given the factors at play.

Chicago Bears

League perception: The Bears’ team president, Kevin Warren, has a business background and was hired primarily to get a stadium built, but he seems to have significant pull in football-related decisions. The GM, Ryan Poles, once reported directly to owner George McCaskey, but now he reports to Warren. That represents a significant shift. Warren drove the decision to fire the previous coach, Matt Eberflus, during the season. That move allowed the team to evaluate interim coach Thomas Brown, but it also exposed Poles to greater scrutiny. Poles appears increasingly embattled and compromised, but all signs point to him staying.

Interview list: The Bears have interviewed four NFL offensive coordinators (Drew Petzing, Mike Kafka, Ben Johnson, Arthur Smith), four NFL defensive coordinators (Anthony Weaver, Aaron Glenn, Vance Joseph, Brian Flores), four former NFL head coaches in addition to Smith, Joseph and Flores (Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, Ron Rivera and Mike Vrabel, who was hired by New England), two current/former college head coaches (Matt Campbell, David Shaw) and one current Bears assistant (Thomas Brown). They have requested interviews with current NFL offensive coordinators Todd Monken, Joe Brady, Kliff Kingsbury and Adam Stenavich and shown interest in another college coach, Marcus Freeman. It’s a lot to track.

Comfortable hire: Marcus Freeman, current Notre Dame coach

The fit in Chicago could be comfortable for Warren and Poles because the 39-year-old Freeman, with no NFL coaching experience, might need to rely upon them for guidance, instead of insisting upon major structural changes or telling them how things actually work in the league.

Warren’s recent stint as commissioner of the Big Ten Conference could give him insights into and an appreciation for college candidates. It doesn’t hurt that Warren and Bears ownership have ties to Notre Dame. Freeman also was a 2009 Bears fifth-round draft choice.

Freeman, who surfaced as a potential Bears target six weeks ago, per Peter Schrager of Fox and NFL Network, has the Irish in the national championship game on Monday against his alma mater, Ohio State. High-profile college coaches and staff members sometimes have expensive buyouts, so that could be a consideration for the Bears. Freeman signed a contract extension recently. The Bears have requested an interview with him.

Shake-it-up hire: Mike McCarthy, former two-time NFL head coach

McCarthy’s track record working with Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott could appeal to an organization that has floundered on offense for decades, and now is trying to develop 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.

However, McCarthy’s status as a 61-year-old Super Bowl-winning coach with 185 total wins (13th all-time) could make him a more disruptive hire for the powers that be in Chicago.

A coach of his experience (310 total games, including playoffs) might seek a different reporting structure. He might be more apt to overhaul support staffs. He could have established opinions regarding free agency and the draft. He would know more than his bosses know about how football operations work, how the games are won and what makes an NFL organization successful on the field.

Wild-card hire: David Shaw, former Stanford coach

Poles, the Bears’ GM, indicated the team could consider outside-the-box candidates. Shaw, an NFL assistant from 1997 to 2005, was the head coach at Stanford from 2011 to 2022 and was frequently named as a potential candidate for openings in the league. But he never seriously pursued an NFL head-coaching job while at Stanford, and has faded from the conversation in recent years.

Currently a senior personnel executive with the Denver Broncos, Shaw interviewed with the Bears, as did McCarthy. Could he be a fallback to Freeman or another high-profile college coach, if the Bears are less inclined to hire an NFL lifer?

Jacksonville Jaguars

League perception: Owner Shad Khan’s decision to retain GM Trent Baalke after firing coach Doug Pederson might complicate the Jaguars’ efforts to land coaching candidates who might have options elsewhere, notably the Lions’ Johnson. Some wonder whether Khan would ultimately allow a candidate such as Johnson to bring in his own personnel evaluator, increasing the chances for alignment.

Khan’s decision to retain Baalke suggested the owner thought the Jaguars had the quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) and roster to contend, if only there were better coaching (Khan declared before the season that this Jaguars team possessed the best roster in franchise history). Pederson’s refusal to take over offensive play-calling duties became a source of friction internally as the 2023 and 2024 seasons slipped away. Are the Jaguars a more engaged offensive architect away from getting back to the playoffs?

Interview list: The Jaguars have interviewed four offensive coordinators (Kellen Moore, Monken, Liam Coen, Johnson) and three defensive coordinators (Glenn, Flores, Steve Spagnuolo and Patrick Graham). They also interviewed former Jets coach Robert Saleh (Flores and Spagnuolo are also former head coaches). They also requested an interview with one offensive coordinator (Brady).

Comfortable hire: Robert Saleh, former Jets coach

The Lions’ Johnson could be the most comfortable hire as a more enterprising, hands-on version of Pederson, but only if he agreed to work with Baalke, a situation that could take time to play out.

Saleh would fit into the current structure, on the assumption he wouldn’t have the leverage to insist upon bringing in his own GM. Although Saleh and Baalke did not overlap in San Francisco, where Baalke was an executive from 2005 to 2016 and Saleh was the defensive coordinator from 2017 to 2020, Saleh already has a feel for the Jaguars’ ownership and organization. He coached linebackers for the team under former coach Gus Bradley from 2014 to 2016.

Whatever challenges Saleh might face working with a holdover GM such as Baalke might seem simple to overcome for a coach coming off a four-year run as coach of the chaotic Jets.

Shake-it-up hire: Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator

Flores’ three-year run coaching the Miami Dolphins produced two winning seasons but no playoff appearances and some hurt feelings. While Flores has stopped short of publicly apologizing for his treatment of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which was criticized as overly harsh, he has rebuilt his image during a successful two-year run with the Vikings under a player-friendly coach in Kevin O’Connell.

Even if Flores has tempered some of his hard-line ways, the thinking is that he would bring to Jacksonville a level of toughness and accountability — an edge — that seems to have been lacking. Flores would transform the culture from what it was under the laid-back Pederson, for sure. He might shake up more than that, as some see Flores and Vikings executive Ryan Grigson as a potential coach-GM package deal.

Wild-card hire: Vic Fangio, Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator

Fangio worked with Baalke in San Francisco. He also interviewed with Baalke and the Jaguars in 2022, when the team was looking at him as a potential head coach or defensive coordinator. The Eagles jumped from 30th to second in defensive EPA per play after hiring Fangio this season, while also going from fourth-oldest to fourth-youngest in snap-weighted average age on that side of the ball.

Fangio, 66, arguably overachieved when posting a 19-30 (.388) record as the Broncos’ coach from 2019 to 2021. That record included 7-7 with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, 8-13 with Drew Lock and 4-9 with a combination of Joe Flacco, Brett Rypien, Brandon Allen and Jeff Driskel. The QB situation became so dire during the 2020 pandemic season that practice-squad receiver Kendall Hinton played one game at quarterback, after running back Phillip Lindsay got the start from a Wildcat formation.

Dallas Cowboys

League perception: Executives from other teams see owner Jerry Jones as a showman unwilling to leave the spotlight, even if doing so might increase the chances for the team succeeding on the field at the highest levels.

Jones has complained to his fellow owners behind the scenes in recent years that teams pay too much “dead money” for fired coaches. He was willing to let McCarthy’s contract expire in that context. Three decades ago, when the Cowboys were rolling under then-coach Jimmy Johnson, Jones quipped that he could find 500 coaches to succeed with his team. That comment precipitated Johnson’s departure from the franchise.

Jones has subsequently hired seven coaches. Six produced winning records, but none delivered the team to another Super Bowl. Executives from other teams question how much Jones will be willing to pay for his next coach. However, they do not think dragging out McCarthy’s situation cost Dallas any opportunities in the market, for two reasons: It’s still early, and Dallas probably isn’t seeking the hottest candidates anyway.

Interview list: The Cowboys have scheduled interviews with Saleh, Kellen Moore and Leslie Frazier. Jones has spoken less formally with Deion Sanders, with both parties acknowledging some interest in one another.

Comfortable hire: Kellen Moore, Eagles offensive coordinator

Moore played for the Cowboys in 2015, coached quarterbacks for them in 2018 and was their offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2022, when the team ranked fifth in offensive EPA per play and had a 38-28 (.576) record. That history would allow Moore to assimilate into the Cowboys’ culture seamlessly. He would have a good feel for the upside and downside of the position. Jones could remain the face of the organization.

Moore, whose Eagles ranked seventh in offensive EPA per play this season, could have other opportunities, however, as the Jaguars and Saints have also scheduled interviews with him. Would he take the type of deal Jones might be offering after the owner apparently squeezed McCarthy?

Shake-it-up hire: Deion Sanders, Colorado coach

Would the spotlight in Dallas shine wide enough to accommodate two larger-than-life personalities (Sanders, Jones) instead of just one (Jones)? Sanders, as a legendary former Cowboys player, is already family in Dallas. That would seem to help. But the potential for shaking things up would be there every day. Jones might like that.

“I think they are made for each other — two showmen,” an exec from another team said. “It would be must-watch TV, which is probably the second thing Jerry cares about, if you believe he wants to win a Super Bowl.”

Wild-card hire: Mike Zimmer, Cowboys defensive coordinator

Zimmer is 68 and could be close to retirement, but if Jones let McCarthy leave because he was insisting upon a short-term deal, why would he hand a rich long-term deal to someone else? Zimmer or another coach in his situation might take a shorter-term deal, which would allow Jones to prove he was correct in his harder-line approach with McCarthy.

Las Vegas Raiders

League perception: Executives see the Raiders as a floundering franchise that pivots from one coach/philosophy to another every couple of years. They see new minority owner Tom Brady trying to bring vision and stability to the franchise. They also see Brady’s credibility as a leading reason the Lions’ Johnson might be considering Las Vegas after the team fired coach Antonio Pierce and first-year GM Tom Telesco.

Candidate list: The Raiders have interviewed former head coaches Carroll and Saleh, plus coordinators Johnson, Glenn, Spagnuolo and Joseph (Spagnuolo and Joseph are also former head coaches). They requested permission to speak with Monken and reportedly have interest in Flores, who coached in New England when Brady played for the Patriots.

Comfortable hire: Ben Johnson, Lions offensive coordinator

Brady could see Johnson as a younger version of his own former Patriots offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, whom the Raiders fired as coach before Brady became part of the ownership team. Under this scenario, the Raiders might pair Johnson with a new GM, which could be someone Johnson already knows or approves of after meeting during the process. Brady’s former Michigan teammate John Spytek is the only GM candidate to interview with the Raiders so far. Brady and Spytek also overlapped in Tampa Bay, where Spytek has been an executive since 2016.

Shake-it-up hire: Pete Carroll, former Seahawks coach

Carroll breathes life and energy into every organization he leads. He would give the Raiders direction and a positive energy unlike anything the organization has experienced in a long time, possibly since John Madden was in the role. Carroll could also help land quarterback Russell Wilson as a potential bridge quarterback to a drafted prospect, assuming Wilson reaches free agency, as expected. Though the relationship between Carroll and Wilson was strained toward the end of their time together in Seattle, Wilson attended Carroll’s going-away party from the Seahawks. A reunion would not shock their associates.

Wild-card hire: Jon Gruden, former Raiders coach

Gruden sued the NFL, alleging the league forced him to resign as coach of the Raiders in 2021 after leaking offensive emails Gruden had exchanged with confidants while serving as an ESPN analyst years earlier. Davis is not the maverick his legendary father was, so he might be less likely to re-hire Gruden, which would be seen around the NFL as raising a giant middle finger toward the league office. This would be among the wildest of the wild-card scenarios for Las Vegas, especially with Brady setting a new course.

New Orleans Saints

League perception: The Saints are seen as stable and favoring continuity, sometimes to a fault. GM Mickey Loomis, in place since 2002, has allowed the team’s head coaches to drive the football philosophy. That appears unlikely to change and could be appealing to candidates. One question is whether candidates will view the roster as optimistically as the Saints seem to have viewed it. A messy salary-cap situation could take time to work through, especially with long-term questions at quarterback, although Derek Carr’s production in 2024 was solid when he played (11th in offensive EPA per pass play in 10 starts).

Interview list: The Saints reportedly had interest in Vrabel, who signed with New England before visiting with the Saints. They have interviewed Weaver, Kafka, Glenn and interim coach Darren Rizzi. They also have interviews scheduled with Moore and McCarthy and requested interviews with Joe Brady and Kingsbury.

Comfortable hire: Aaron Glenn, Lions defensive coordinator

Glenn coached defensive backs for the Saints from 2016 to 2020 and maintains close relationships with some of the team’s leadership and employees. He would know the landscape within the organization and might fit into the existing culture. Why hire a defensive coordinator such as Glenn to replace a fired former defensive play-calling head coach in Dennis Allen? Glenn could project as the more dynamic leader because of his personality and after four seasons under Dan Campbell, who appears to be an elite connector of people, in Detroit.

Shake-it-up hire: Mike McCarthy, former Cowboys coach

McCarthy was the Saints’ offensive coordinator from 2000 to 2004, which means he already worked under Loomis, the GM, but that was a long, long time ago. McCarthy was just starting out then. He has 18 seasons of head-coaching experience since and would surely change the way the Saints operate, to a degree the franchise hasn’t experienced since hiring Sean Payton in 2006. (The Saints promoted Allen, Payton’s assistant, to succeed Payton as coach in 2022, a move seen as favoring continuity.)

Wild-card hire: Jon Gruden, former NFL head coach

As noted in the Raiders’ section above, hiring Gruden would be seen within the NFL as an affront to Goodell and the league office. Not every team would dare to make such a move. The Saints might be different, given how hard the league hammered the franchise for its participation in the “Bountygate” scheme to pay players for punishing hits.

Gruden visited the Saints’ facility this month, posing for a picture with Saints players he coached in Las Vegas, including Carr. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero recently reported that the Saints would have hired Gruden as their offensive coordinator last offseason if Gruden had been amenable to accepting the job.

New York Jets

League perception: This is seen as the toughest job because of an impulsive owner (Woody Johnson) and an unforgiving, relentless media market. The next coach also must figure out what to do at quarterback, where Aaron Rodgers remains under contract but could retire.

Johnson’s decision to hire former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and former Vikings GM Rick Spielman to lead the search for a new coach and GM was unconventional. Tannenbaum founded The 33rd Team, which bills itself as a football think tank, in 2019. He served as the Jets’ GM from 2006 to 2012 and is the only GM in franchise history with a winning record (57-55), excluding Bill Parcells, who served as coach/GM for three seasons (28-19) and only GM for one (9-7). Tannenbaum was a Dolphins executive from 2015 to 2018.

Could Tannenbaum and/or Spielman wind up working for the Jets longer term? Some in the league expect the Jets to pair a former head coach with a first-time GM that Tannenbaum and Spielman could advise/mentor.

Interview list: Eleven of the 13 candidates the Jets have interviewed had head-coaching experience in college (Mike Locksley) or in the NFL (Rivera, Vrabel, Rex Ryan, Matt Nagy, Spagnuolo, Joseph, Smith, Flores), including as interim coaches (Rizzi, Jeff Ulbrich). Glenn and Slowik are the exceptions. That could be an indication the Jets acknowledge the degree of difficulty associated with coaching this franchise and could be reluctant to hire a first-time coach. They have also requested interviews with Brady, Packers DC Jeff Hafley (another former college coach), Commanders DC Joe Whitt Jr. and two former NFL QBs and current quarterbacks coaches, the 49ers’ Brian Griese and the Vikings’ Josh McCown.

Comfortable hire: Arthur Smith, Steelers offensive coordinator and former Falcons coach

Smith is the son of the billionaire FedEx founder, Frederick Smith. Johnson, the Jets’ owner, is the son of a billionaire heir to the Johnson & Johnson pharmaceutical empire. That might not be enough in common to form a long-term partnership, but it’s something. Smith tended to get testy with reporters in Atlanta, which is not New York/New Jersey, so that is something to consider.

The general idea here would be for the Jets to hire Smith or someone else with head-coaching experience, unless they felt someone such as Glenn, the Lions’ defensive coordinator and a former Jets player, were ready for the role. The Jets would then hire a first-time GM. Tannenbaum could remain in an executive role or consult from afar. This could be a comfortable way for the organization to proceed.

Shake-it-up hire: Ben Johnson, Lions offensive coordinator, with his own GM

Under this scenario, the Jets would land the hot young offensive coordinator, ceding to his apparent wish to bring in his own GM (Lions executives Chris Spielman and Lance Newmark have already interviewed for the GM role). The Jets would then try to set in motion something similar to what the Lions have accomplished since hiring Campbell as coach and Brad Holmes as GM. Glenn could also fit into this template as part of a coach-GM package deal from Detroit. Turning over the franchise to a Flores-Grigson pairing could feel similar.

Whatever the case, the Jets would be pivoting toward a new outside approach, with less longer-term input from Tannenbaum/Spielman.

Wild-card hire: Rex Ryan, former Jets coach

I was tempted to list McCarthy here as a run-it-back-with-Rodgers candidate, but Ryan has coached the Jets before and interviewed for the job during this cycle. How about Ryan as coach, with Tannenbaum in a front-office role?

“Don’t interview Rex Ryan unless you are going to hire Rex Ryan,” one NFL team exec said. “When they lose, Rex Ryan on ESPN is going to say, ‘I’m better than that guy. They interviewed me, should have hired me.’”

The Jets went 20-12 (.625) and reached the AFC Championship Game twice in 2009-10, Ryan’s first two seasons. Ryan went 26-38 (.406) the rest of the way, including 27-36 (.429) without Tannenbaum. He last coached in 2016, when he went 7-8 with the Buffalo Bills during a two-year stretch in which he posted a 15-16 record with Tyrod Taylor (14-14), E.J. Manuel (0-2) and Matt Cassel (1-0) as his starting quarterbacks.

(Photos of Jon Gruden, left, and Deion Sanders: Ethan Miller, Christian Petersen / Getty Images)